Fight Prediction? Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo Alvarez

[The_budweiser]

Canelo Alvarez and Dmitry Bivol came face-to-face today in San Diego to officially launch their clash at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday May 7, with Bivol defending his WBA World Light-Heavyweight title against the pound for pound king on Cinco de Mayo weekend Sin City.

 

The May 7 blockbuster will be available to subscribers around the world on DAZN, excluding Latin America and Mexico. In the U.S. & Canada, the event will be offered exclusively on DAZN Pay-Per View (PPV) – newly introduced for very select events to come – and priced at $59.99 for current subscribers and $79.99 for new subscribers (inclusive of a one-month subscription to DAZN).

 

https://www.ringnews24.com/2022/03/03/canelo-alvarez-and-dmitry-bivol-came-face-to-face-in-san-diego/

 

How do you see the fight going?

[LondonRingRules]

--- Two boxer/punchers with good chins guaranteed to go to decision that favors Canelo.

 

Insert unceasing howls of ROBBERY here___________________!

[Cableaddict]

The powers-that-be will never let Canelo "lose," so this is an easy bet.

[Ledhed1]

Bivol's a smallish light-heavyweight though considerably taller than Canelo. Canelo's proven he can deal with pretty much anything. Bivol's been a relatively low-volume puncher, and I don't think his slight edge in power will be enough to overcome that. As good a boxer as Bivol is, I think Canelo can do him one better over the course of 12 rounds. Canelo does tend to be cagey in the early rounds. Bivol's team would do well to throw Canelo a curve ball and prepare him to come out aggressively straight away and get Canelo on the back foot. Something different and unexpected is what it'll take to shock the world.

[LondonRingRules]

Bivol's a smallish light-heavyweight though considerably taller than Canelo. Canelo's proven he can deal with pretty much anything. Bivol's been a relatively low-volume puncher, and I don't think his slight edge in power will be enough to overcome that. As good a boxer as Bivol is, I think Canelo can do him one better over the course of 12 rounds. Canelo does tend to be cagey in the early rounds. Bivol's team would do well to throw Canelo a curve ball and prepare him to come out aggressively straight away and get Canelo on the back foot. Something different and unexpected is what it'll take to shock the world.

 

--- Not a bad fight plan, but I haven't seen enough of Bivol to know how flexible his skills and corner may be beyond fundamentally sound.

 

Or, put it this way: It ain't easy Russian these days in the Western World with folks calling for boycotts of Russian fighters much like they did to South Africans in the day. He's basically an international type fighter based in Montreal, and last time in Vegas he scored a KO in a nontitle fight. MGM Grand vs Canelo in a title unification is an infinitely greater challenge.

 

Anyhoo, fight coming up like an unstoppable freight train this Saturday, a good day to be a fight fan I hope.

[Ledhed1]

A bit troubling to see Canelo turn up at the Stevenson-Valdez fight with his camp in progress. Is he 100% focused? This fight seems to have snuck up on us. All of a sudden it's fight week. Could be trickier than expected for Canelo - Bivol can be a tough nut to crack - and if Canelo gets frustrated, Bivol could take him off his game. Little things that give me pause, but not expecting that to change the outcome. We'll see how they look on weigh-in day.

[WelshDevilRob]

Gotta be Saul. He's at his peak and a quality rounded fighter. Bivol has a varied arsenal but lacks real pop. Think it goes the distance and Bivol has the talent to push it close.

[LondonRingRules]

--- Supposedly Canelo wants to fight Usyk at 201 for the heavy unified title if he beats AJ.

 

Geez, I hope not. He may be getting too big for his britches about now that is always a worry when a fighter has had such success and accolades not to mention lucre as he has had.

[Cableaddict]

Canelo via BS decision. :whistle:

 

 

 

But if the world happens to fall off its axis, and bats actually fly out of my ass, and we get a fair fight:

 

Canelo's head slips are the best I've ever seen in boxing, ever. He's also learned how to move his torso really well in the last 3-4 years.

So the key is obviously to go at him with body shots. Sadly, that has never been Bivol's strength, to put it mildly.

 

Bivol is incredibly mobile, & he has fast hands, but his offense is practically meat & potatoes basic, and he almost NEVER has gone to the body in the past. (Watch the Agnew fight, when Bivol had him trapped against the ropes and Agnew went to an earmuffs defense. I was literally screaming at my TV for Bivol to go to the body. But no .....

 

Bivol also sucks at countering off the back foot, though I doubt that will be a factor against Canelo.

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- But could we see a new Bivol tonight? He certainly has the leg speed to get in & out on Canelo.

 

He also has incredibly good balance. When he attacks from outside, he never leans forward or gets caught with his head exposed. He's very hard to counter. - So if they've added a solid body attack to his arsenal, he might have a very good chance against the gingican.

 

Of course, Bivol will also be fighting the ref, the judges, probably the ring size (I guarantee it will be tiny) etc etc etc ..... Heck, they'll probably have some guy in the rafters with a spotlight, constantly shining it in Bivol's eyes. Team Canelo doesn't take any chances.

 

 

Mo' money, 'mo money, 'mo money, 'mo money ..............

Edited May 16, 2022 by Cableaddict

[LondonRingRules]

--- Mo' Moanin' Cable. Yeah, blame Canelo for being The Fighter of his Generation, and you wonder what's wrong with boxing?

 

I see a competitive fight, a high end fight between 2 boxer types, and presumably Bivol and his trainer are smart enough at this point to understand targeting a smaller, more compact fighter by reaching down with body shots ain't never fed the bear. Canelo being shorter will be targeting the body. Bivol is a bigger, stronger, more accomplished version of Plant who fought less than he ran. Be the opposite with Bivol.

 

Kov did quite well with a jab and not risking a broken right hand off the top of Canelo's noggin, only 2 pts down on 2 cards and even on the third. I had Kov ahead by 2 at the stoppage, but of course score a lot of even rounds that judges ain't allowed to do.

[LondonRingRules]

*****SPOILERS*****

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

--- Looks like Canelo got whooped with the worlds' largest hater circle jerkers now in full ectasy festivities.

 

Depending on DAZN, maybe I'll report my own fight breakdown, but for now, this shall suffice:

 

https://www.ringtv.com/638948-dmitry...g-performance/

[Ledhed1]

Great gameplan perfectly executed by Bivol. Canelo wasn't quite himself but Bivol deserves credit for beating him back and taking away Canelo's best weapons. There were a couple dangerous uppercuts early from Canelo but they went missing from the middle rounds to the finish. Proof that it's still hard - but not impossible - to win a decision from Canelo in Vegas. 7-5 from all three judges who curiously gave the first four rounds to Canelo. Bending over backward might have gotten me to 8-4 but 9-3 or even 10-2 was more in line with what I watched. But no complaints so long as the belt was around the proper waist. Sorry GGG the wait continues. Bivol-Canelo II for Mexican independence day. As a first take I'd expect twelve more rounds of the same.

[LondonRingRules]

--- The storied state of the art Reynosa gym has taken consecutive losses with Martinez, Valdez, and now Canelo after unprecedented success. They didn't didn't get to that level without rare expertise, and remember Patterson blown out much worse vs Ingo won that rematch, Ali won the Joe rematch, and Ray won the Roberto rematch, and so on, so any notion that the same result is a done deal don't have any precedent.

 

In fact, the rematch may be more fireworks, but one thing is for certain. Canelo needs to ditch the pink trunks he wore for a noble cause that obviously weakened him ;)

[Robbo]

The fact that the right guy won shouldn't disguise the corrupt/incompetent judging. They all scored the first 4 rounds to Alvarez meaning he was only one round from getting a draw. The victory should have been a landslide in favour of Bivol.

[Bear Hugger]

--- Supposedly Canelo wants to fight Usyk at 201 for the heavy unified title if he beats AJ.

 

Geez, I hope not. He may be getting too big for his britches about now that is always a worry when a fighter has had such success and accolades not to mention lucre as he has had.

 

Even if Canelo had won against Bivol, he wouldn't have had a prayer against Usyk.

[WelshDevilRob]

Bivol was excellent and Canelo looked really uncomfortable in the later rounds. Fantastic game plan by the champion.

Looks like a rematch will happen and the Russian wants Canelo's belts on the line next time.

 

Bivol: “His natural size is for less weight, and mine too. Maybe next fight for four belts in his division”

[Cableaddict]

115 - 113 from all three judges. :noidea:

That's a robbery even though the right man won.

 

I personally gave Canelo one round, and only because I wanted to be generous to the lad.

 

There's not a single round where he even came close to outlanding Bivol, and he wasn't landing significantly harder shots, either.

 

Note to the clueless commentators: Punches that hit your opponent's gloves don't score. Duh.

--------------------------

 

And the "Boxing Ass-clown of the Year" award goes to:

 

Shawn Porter, for trying to claim that Canelo was winning after six rounds. Cash that paycheck, Shawn. You sure earned it.

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Special award to referee Russel (low blows? what low blows? ) Mora, for the most subtle form of corruption so far this year:

 

I love how he kept warning Bivol not to push Canelo down (obviously looking to soon deduct a point for this) when no such thing was happening.

Canelo was lunging in with his head down, under Bivols left arm, when Bivol jabbed. Then Canelo would raise his head and occasionally get hung up.

If Bivol had pulled his arm away, he'd have been wide open to an uppercut.

Edited May 10, 2022 by Cableaddict

[LondonRingRules]

 

Even if Canelo had won against Bivol, he wouldn't have had a prayer against Usyk.

 

- - I know that, you know that, and anyone with 2 cents worth of a boxing IQ knows that, but Canelo bigger than Dallas and Fort Worth combined just floating nonsense for the rubes and the media to run with.

 

Having an outsiders view of the post fight hue and cry of this big post fight, I finally got to watch the fight that was largely 2 boxer/punchers canceling each other with almost zero drama of a big fight. As regulars know, I score even rounds that were 2/3rds of this fight leaving a 3-1 round scorecard where Bivol was clearly the stronger fighter at the finish.

 

The hue and cry is born of expectations with great things expected of Canelo with none expected from Bivol, and since Canelo under performed and Bivol over performed, VOILA, insert hue and cry here______!!!

 

Play it again, Sam as Bogart used to say.

 

Oh, Canelo left a massive bruise on Bivol's left shoulder with legal shots...just sayin'...

[Cableaddict]

The fact that the right guy won shouldn't disguise the corrupt/incompetent judging. They all scored the first 4 rounds to Alvarez meaning he was only one round from getting a draw. The victory should have been a landslide in favour of Bivol.

 

 

This.

 

 

As for the fight itself, I was very surprised that Canelo was not head slipping anywhere near as much as usual. His mobility was not there at all.

Possibly his team made the decision to fight power with power, and so he was focused too much on driving forward?