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Boxrec rankings are ridiculous!


RAZZ-MCFC
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I know what they (BoxRec) use is flawed, but I will give them credit for being consistent in employing it (something the Orgs are notorious for not doing). A friend of mine John Gaetano and I used to marvel at some of things they came up with in All Time categories, so I think it's just a fault with whatever formula they use.
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if anybody has a spare hour to work all this out, this is how their system works

 

After every bout, the ratings of the two boxers involved are changed depending on the bout's official result (KO, TKO, RTD, UD, PTS, NWS, MD, SD, DQ, TD, DRAW).

The value of a result varies between v=1 and v=0.

The clear decision factor varies between cd=1 and cd=0.

KO, TKO, RTD are rewarded with full value v=1, cd=1.

NWS is rewarded with full value v=1 for 12 rounds boxed and more and a lower value related to the number of rounds boxed. Clear decision factor cd=1.

UD, PTS are rewarded with full value v=1 for 12 rounds boxed and more and a lower value related to the number of rounds boxed, clear decision factor cd=1. This is valid, if the score cards are not available.

DRAW is rewarded with value v=0 and cd=0.

MD, SD, DQ, TD are rewarded with half value v=0.5 or a lower value, if the number of rounds boxed is lower than 12 rounds, clear decision factor cd=0.5. This is valid, if the score cards are not available.

If the score cards are available, the value rewarded is in relation to the mean score difference per judge. A mean score difference of 6 points or more per judge is rewarded with relative full value v=1. The maximum value is also in relation to the rounds boxed, with full value v=1 for 12 rounds boxed and more. The clear decision factor is in proportion to rounds boxed and the mean score difference per judge. cd=1 for mean score difference divided by a sixth of rounds boxed greater or equal 1.

 

All bouts are regarded to have the same weight independent of titles.

The winner gets a certain part of the opponent's points and additionally a certain part of the rating difference to the opponent's rating. The winner gets 10 additional points, if his opponent's rating is higher than a quarter of his own rating.

For a DRAW the rating of the higher rated boxer is reduced by some part of the point difference; the rating of the lower rated boxer is enhanced by the same amount of points.

The full relative point win is 34.5%.

The part for reduction of ratings difference is between 11.5% for full value and 34.5 % for a draw.

The rating of a boxer is reduced by 25%, if he didn't box an opponent with a rating of at least 25% of his own rating points within 18 months.

The rating of a boxer is reduced by an increasing value of 0% to 50% for every time period of inactivity of 12 to 18 months.

A boxer is regarded to have an home advantage, if he has already fought a minimum of two bouts in the country, where the current bout is taking place. The rating of the a boxer with home advantage is assumed to be at 140% for the calculation of the point wins, his opponent's rating is assumed to be at 70% for the calculation of the point wins.

The ratings are decreased for moving up to higher weight divisions by the square of the reciprocal ratio of the weights limits of the divisions - and they are increased by the same factor for moving down the divisions.

The ratings are equalized between divisions in relation to average points of the boxers ranked #9, #10 and #11 in a division.

 

If a boxer with a rating of r_a before the fight defeats boxer b with a rating of r_b before the fight with result of value v and clear decision factor cl the new ratings r_a_new and r_b_new after a fight are:

 

r_a_new = r_a + 0.345*v*r_b + 0.345/(1+2*cl)*(r_b - r_a)

r_b_new = r_b - 0.345*v*r_b - 0.345/(1+2*cl)*(r_b - r_a)

 

 

Right, heres some examples.....

 

Boxer a KO's boxer b, a has 1000 points, b has 500 points. v=1, cl=1.

 

r_a_new = 1000 + 0.345*1*500 + 0.345/(1+2*1)*(500 - 1000) + 10 = 1125

r_b_new = 500 - 115 = 385

Boxer a KO boxer b, a has 1000 points, b has 500 points. v=1, cl=1. Boxer b has the home advantage.

 

For the calculation the rating of boxer b is assumed to be 500*1.4 = 700

For the calculation the rating of boxer a is assumed to be 1000*0.7 = 700

r_a_new = 1000 + 0.345*1*700 + 0.345/(1+2*1)*(700 - 700) + 10 = 1252

r_b_new = 500 - 242 = 258

 

 

If it were a 6 round UD it would look like this....

 

Boxer a UD 6 boxer b, scores 59:55 58:56 58:56, a has 1000 points, b has 500 points.

 

UD is rewarded with v=1 at maximum

A 6 rounder is rewarded with value 6/12 at maximum v=0.5

mean score difference per judge is (4+2+2)/3 = 2.667, which is rewarded with value 2.667/6 at maximum = 0.445

so v=0.445

close decision factor is in relation to rounds boxed 12/6, so cl=0.89

r_a_new = 1000 + 0.345*0.445*500 + 0.345/(1+2*0.89)*(500 - 1000) +10 = 1025

r_b_new = 500+15= 485

Boxer a SD 4 boxer b, scores 39:37 39:37 37:39, a has 1000 points, b has 500 points

 

SD is rewarded with v=0.5 at maximum

A 4 rounder SD is rewarded with 0.5/12*4 at maximum v=0.167

mean score difference per judge is (2+2-2)/3 = 0.667, which is rewarded with 0.667/6 at maximum v=0.111

close decision factor is in relation to rounds boxed 12/4, so cl=0.333

r_a_new = 1000 + 0.345*0.111*500 + 0.345/(1+2*0.333)*(500 - 1000) +10 = 926

r_b_new = 500+66 = 566

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Let's be honest here, who has Gamboa really beaten?

There's no marquee names on his record.

Solis is decent, and there are a couple of others on there worth a mention, but no real standouts.

Lopez was the guy beating most of the bigger names in the division, and the man who beat the man always ends up getting a lot more credit than a single fight would be worth in most people's eyes.

There are 3 points between them now on Boxrec's rankings, which means that one win now puts them pretty much neck and neck.

KO'ing Lopez eclipses ANYTHING Gamboa has done in his career to date.

 

There are always a few things which you can't get right using a formula, but I wouldn't say they're far off the mark in this case.

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